Thank you for your work. I appreciate the effort to forecast the trajectory of the cumulative case count.
One of the lines is identified as "the 1st, 2nd & 3rd". What does the "3rd" refer to?
Thank you. Those numbers are the pandemic waves came to Honolulu.
So, the 1st is the first wave only.
The 1st + 2nd means that the new increase from the 2nd wave is added on top of the first wave, which seemed to be ended.
The 3rd wave started, in our analysis, while the 2nd wave did not end. Therefore the 1st + 2nd + 3rd means the (total) cumulative confirmed cases of all occurred.
We are HICOVID team, consisting of Prof. Kim and students in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Students: Seth Colburn, Mia Fong, Brenton Sasaoka, and incoming ..