[08/28/2020 Fri] the future is dark.

The first week of the fall instruction at UHM ended today. Passing yesterday to today, Honolulu's cumulative confirmed cases exceeded 7,000: we forecasted 8/23 the date when Honolulu CCC will be close to 7,000.  As we emphasized in the past weeks, Honolulu CCC increases monotonously for more than two weeks. Every day the number of new cases is approximately the same.   The previous research for the pandemic spread in G20 countries indicates that if a country's CCC exceeded 100, it did not stop until it reached 100,000.  Even if the CCC's semi-log versus time plot shows a seeming plateau profile, daily new confirmed cases did not stop.  We cannot go back to the previous CCC stage below 1,000 until late May 2020. But, we also cannot stop the future spread of coronavirus in the state of Oahu. Even if the Honolulu CCC growth rate somehow slowed down from exponential to linear, this trend change should not be misunderstood that the Honolulu situation became better.   The conservative model of the hyperbolic tangent function gave us reliable prediction, but now it gives us nothing but lower bound of the CCC projected to the near future.  The effects of restriction and lock-down usually came out in a few weeks. If so, the linear growth of the Honolulu CCC will continue about a month. We forecasted that Honolulu CCC would exceed 10,000 by 8/31 (on 8/15). No matter what our previous prediction is relatively close or not, if the current trend continues, then the HI CCC and Honolulu CCC will be more than 10,000 on September 3 and 10, respectively.   Note that 10,000 is more than 1.0% of Oahu populations. And, there is no country in the world where the daily new cases entirely stop after the total CCC exceeds 10,000. ​