8/25/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC Analysis
8/23/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC Analysis
8/22/2020 0 Comments Is this decline a real decline?
8/21/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC AnalysisHonolulu CCC now entered a different stage than last week, when we had an upsurging increase, which is, in our opinion, possibly ascribed to extra social gatherings near July 4th, 2020. If this hypothesis is correct, it takes three weeks to start CCC upsurging after increased social gatherings. The upsurging continued for more than three weeks (after 7/24) to start slowing down (on 8/20). Today (8/20/2020) and yesterday, the semilog linear forecasting moved down to our hicovidmodel prediction level. One can interpret the overlapping trend of these two independent models as follows. First, the effects of July 4th gatherings became less significant than last week because the number of new cases per day in Honolulu slightly decreases in the previous few days. However, the data interpretation above can be easily misleading. Near July 4th, the number of new cases per day in Honolulu was around 20, and now it is about 200, which is a tentimes increase in 7 weeks. A few days of relaxed restrictions by a fraction of individuals made a huge difference. If people in Hawai'i were better guided and selfcontrolled, the total number of confirmed cases in Honolulu now could have been below 2,000 with a low, increasing rate of around 2030 new cases per day. The latest restriction by the Hawai'i state government is essential. On the other hand, each individual should keep the restriction guidelines as minimum mandatory rules to follow. The 28 days of the restriction include the Labor Day. If we were not careful enough, the second upsurging is visible, which will mimic what happened after July 4th.
8/20/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC AnalysisHonolulu CCC now entered a different stage than last week, when we had an upsurging increase, which is, in our opinion, possibly ascribed to extra social gatherings near July 4th, 2020. If this hypothesis is correct, it takes three weeks to start CCC upsurging after increased social gatherings. The upsurging continued for more than three weeks (after 7/24) to start slowing down (on 8/20). Today (8/20/2020) and yesterday, the semilog linear forecasting moved down to our hicovidmodel prediction level. One can interpret the overlapping trend of these two independent models as follows. First, the effects of July 4th gatherings became less significant than last week because the number of new cases per day in Honolulu slightly decreases in the previous few days. However, the data interpretation above can be easily misleading. Near July 4th, the number of new cases per day in Honolulu was around 20, and now it is about 200, which is a tentimes increase in 7 weeks. A few days of relaxed restrictions by a fraction of individuals made a huge difference. If people in Hawai'i were better guided and selfcontrolled, the total number of confirmed cases in Honolulu now could have been below 2,000 with a low, increasing rate of around 2030 new cases per day. The latest restriction by the Hawai'i state government is essential. On the other hand, each individual should keep the restriction guidelines as minimum mandatory rules to follow. The 28 days of the restriction include the Labor Day. If we were not careful enough, the second upsurging is visible, which will mimic what happened after July 4th.
8/19/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC AnalysisThis weekly graph will be here to show the overall weekly increase in Honolulu and Maui CCC over time. Maui seems to enterred a serious situation. Below are the daily updates of Honolulu CCC, which do not show noticeable differences to yesterday's trends. A more indepth analysis will come soon.
The Honolulu CCC continuously grow as the graph shows. The international trend wouldn't change much.

AuthorWe are Civil Engineering students at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who are dedicated to informing the public on this pandemic and how science could be used to predicts future cases. ArchivesCategories 
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