8/16/2020 0 Comments
Figure analysis (revised on 8/17, 2:10 am)
Why do we analyze the Honolulu CCC, not the state CCC?
Many people asked us: "Why don't you do the state data as well?" Here are the answers.
How to understand a log-scale graph
Now is the time that non-expert needs to understand that our prediction depends on the latest 1-2 weeks of unstable trends. A longer forecast will include higher errors. The current Honolulu case is almost the world's worst in terms of its increasing trends.
[Aug. 14, 2020 1:30 pm] The worst scenario may come. Remember we live in an Island, the isolated, confined region.
[August 13, 2020 12:30 pm] Today's data are not good. Honolulu has 342 new cases. Detailed analysis will be available soon. Honolulu CCC will easily exceed 4,500 on 8/23 unless tomorrow (8/14)'s new cases in Honolulu is significantly less than that of today (342). A reasonalbe analysis is that Honolulu CCC will be on 8/23 between mininum 4,442 (by conservative prediction) and 5,700 (by the 5-day linear regression). Again, Honolulu is at a very unstable stage, as the data fluctuates. Today's death number increases also support our interpretation of the Honolulu CCC data.
1. From August 7th to August 8th, HI DOH reported a significant spike in CCC (about 296 cases) following a period of increasing daily new cases for Honolulu. After this substantial increase, we saw a decrease in daily new cases for three days until the next jump. We observed a similarly significant rise in confirmed cases following a period of increasing daily new cases today (8/13) of about 350 CCC.
2. We predict that by 8/23, the CCC for Honolulu will be about 4,442. By 8/31, the CCC will be around 4,552, meaning that we predict a decrease in daily new cases will occur after 8/23.
3. Due to the sharp increase of about 350 newly reported CCC for Honolulu, the slope of the CCC wave has increased significantly, becoming steeper. The predicted maximum number of CCC for the Honolulu county at the end of the third wave has increased sharply with the slope.
We forecast today(8/13) that Honolulu CCC may reach 4,442 by 8/23 (and further 4,552 by 8/31 (not shown in the above graph)).
8/12/2020 0 Comments
[August 12, 2020 10:00 am] Pandemic Analysis upto 8/11/2020
The above graph indicates the forecasted number of total confirmed cases in Honolulu on 8/23/2020 (a day before UH starts instruction) against the prediction date in August. Our forecasting was 2,319 calculated on 8/2, right after the third wave separated from the second wave. This forecasted CCC on 8/23 continuously increased until August 8. The peak value was 4,139 calculated on 8/8, which was a very critical time of Honolulu pandemic spread. Afterward, the predicted value started oscillating across 4,000. In any statistical analysis, small oscillations (CCC values moving up and down) often end up with a stabilized constant, meaning gradual decrease in daily occurrences. We have only 11 days before UH starts the fall instruction. In our forecasting, the Honolulu CCC may reach around 4,000 by 8/23 if the current trend does not significantly change.
[August 12, 2020 1:00 pm] Pandemic Analysis upto 8/12/2020
[August 11, 2020 2:00 am]
[August 10, 2020 11:00 am]
8/9/2020 0 Comments
[August 9, 2020 7:10 pm] Unprecedented risk
[August 8, 2020, 11:55 am]