Ending toward the end of 2020, close to 40K estimated
After the first case reported in the United States on January 20, 2020, more than seven months of struggling time has been gone. After the Black Death arrived in Europe in October 1347, perhaps COVID-19 is the most dreadful disease in its fast spread and noticeable fatality. Hawaii has arrived at the current stage of unpredictable growth and fluctuation.
It is a matter of time that the HI state and the Honolulu county would have the total number of cumulative confirmed cases more than 10,000 in one and two weeks. Most of the countries having more than 10,000 cumulative confirmed cases never experiences any noticeable slowdown or stopping trends. It is very reasonable to expect that the state of Hawaii will experience continuous increases in infected cases. Simultaneously, the accuracy of specific statistical data is not critically important; instead, we need to know where we are going unless we can stop the unprecedented level of pandemic spread in the state of Hawaii.
The HI statewide CCC already exceeded 8,000 with the total death of 62, i.e., the fatality is about 0.08%. The HI state already entered a mature pandemic state, where the daily new cases and new deaths are pseudo-constant. Usually, reaching from 10K to 20K is faster than from 0 to 10K. Honolulu county will have 20K (2% of Oahu population) by early October, probably yielding 160 deaths. In the worst future scenario, assuming the CCC growth rate will be pseudo-linear for long, the Honolulu county will have 7,500 - 10,000 new cases every month. Honolulu CCC is 7,410 (close to 7.5K), which will be monthly new cases for long. Therefore, forecasting is 15K by September, 22.5K by October, 30 K by November, and 37.5 by Christmas. A rough estimation of Honolulu CCC by the end of 2020 is close to 40K, i.e., 4 % of the Oahu population.
The first week of the fall instruction at UHM ended today. Passing yesterday to today, Honolulu's cumulative confirmed cases exceeded 7,000: we forecasted 8/23 the date when Honolulu CCC will be close to 7,000. As we emphasized in the past weeks, Honolulu CCC increases monotonously for more than two weeks. Every day the number of new cases is approximately the same. The previous research for the pandemic spread in G20 countries indicates that if a country's CCC exceeded 100, it did not stop until it reached 100,000. Even if the CCC's semi-log versus time plot shows a seeming plateau profile, daily new confirmed cases did not stop. We cannot go back to the previous CCC stage below 1,000 until late May 2020. But, we also cannot stop the future spread of coronavirus in the state of Oahu. Even if the Honolulu CCC growth rate somehow slowed down from exponential to linear, this trend change should not be misunderstood that the Honolulu situation became better. The conservative model of the hyperbolic tangent function gave us reliable prediction, but now it gives us nothing but lower bound of the CCC projected to the near future. The effects of restriction and lock-down usually came out in a few weeks. If so, the linear growth of the Honolulu CCC will continue about a month. We forecasted that Honolulu CCC would exceed 10,000 by 8/31 (on 8/15). No matter what our previous prediction is relatively close or not, if the current trend continues, then the HI CCC and Honolulu CCC will be more than 10,000 on September 3 and 10, respectively. Note that 10,000 is more than 1.0% of Oahu populations. And, there is no country in the world where the daily new cases entirely stop after the total CCC exceeds 10,000.