[August 13, 2020 12:30 pm] Today's data are not good. Honolulu has 342 new cases. Detailed analysis will be available soon. Honolulu CCC will easily exceed 4,500 on 8/23 unless tomorrow (8/14)'s new cases in Honolulu is significantly less than that of today (342). A reasonalbe analysis is that Honolulu CCC will be on 8/23 between mininum 4,442 (by conservative prediction) and 5,700 (by the 5-day linear regression). Again, Honolulu is at a very unstable stage, as the data fluctuates. Today's death number increases also support our interpretation of the Honolulu CCC data.
1. From August 7th to August 8th, HI DOH reported a significant spike in CCC (about 296 cases) following a period of increasing daily new cases for Honolulu. After this substantial increase, we saw a decrease in daily new cases for three days until the next jump. We observed a similarly significant rise in confirmed cases following a period of increasing daily new cases today (8/13) of about 350 CCC.
2. We predict that by 8/23, the CCC for Honolulu will be about 4,442. By 8/31, the CCC will be around 4,552, meaning that we predict a decrease in daily new cases will occur after 8/23.
3. Due to the sharp increase of about 350 newly reported CCC for Honolulu, the slope of the CCC wave has increased significantly, becoming steeper. The predicted maximum number of CCC for the Honolulu county at the end of the third wave has increased sharply with the slope.
We forecast today(8/13) that Honolulu CCC may reach 4,442 by 8/23 (and further 4,552 by 8/31 (not shown in the above graph)).