[August 4, 2020] Honolulu seems to have started an unexpected third wave already.
The first confirmed case of COVID-19-related infection occurred on March 7, 2020. The first wave (blue dashed) of the pandemic spread continued until mid-April, reaching a temporary stop at 405 cumulative confirmed cases. The second wave (green, long-dashed) became noticeable in mid-June, 2020, and followed the expected pattern until the second to last week of July. An unexpected jump of CCC was observed in the last week of July, and it continues as of August 2, 2020 (predicted in August 4, 2020). The solid red line indicates the possible occurrence of the third pandemic wave in Honolulu county, which predicts that the Honolulu CCC may reach approximately 2,500 (as a minimum, conservative prediction) when the University starts instruction on August 24, 2020. A close observation of reported data is necessary to provide better probable scenarios of the future pandemic trend in Honolulu. The orange arrow shows an intuitively probable, possibly maximum, CCC prediction in Honolulu until mid-August. Unfortunately, now (early August) seems to be the most critical time when all residents of Honolulu county should best practice all recommended safety measures.
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We are Civil Engineering students at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who are dedicated to informing the public on this pandemic and how science could be used to predicts future cases.