Fluctuation is a good sign. Let's watch for a few more days.

The above graph indicates the forecasted number of total confirmed cases in Honolulu on 8/23/2020 (a day before UH starts instruction) against the prediction date in August. Our forecasting was 2,319 calculated on 8/2, right after the third wave separated from the second wave. This forecasted CCC on 8/23 continuously increased until August 8. The peak value was 4,139 calculated on 8/8, which was a very critical time of Honolulu pandemic spread. Afterward, the predicted value started oscillating across 4,000. In any statistical analysis, small oscillations (CCC values moving up and down) often end up with a stabilized constant, meaning gradual decrease in daily occurrences. We have only 11 days before UH starts the fall instruction. In our forecasting, the Honolulu CCC may reach around 4,000 by 8/23 if the current trend does not significantly change.

[August 12, 2020 1:00 pm] Pandemic Analysis upto 8/12/2020  

• As of today, Honolulu county has 3,558 confirmed casesl. Previously, we forecasted 3,567 on August 8 and 3,196 on August 7.
• At this moment, our CCC forecast on 8/23 is 4,059, which is at a mid-level of our 8/09 and 8/10 predictions. 
• Small fluctuation is often a sign of later slow-down to a plateau phase. ​