Honolulu CCC Analysis

Honolulu CCC now entered a different stage than last week, when we had an upsurging increase, which is, in our opinion, possibly ascribed to extra social gatherings near July 4th, 2020.  If this hypothesis is correct, it takes three weeks to start CCC upsurging after increased social gatherings. The upsurging continued for more than three weeks (after 7/24) to start slowing down (on 8/20). Today (8/20/2020) and yesterday, the semi-log linear forecasting moved down to our hicovid-model prediction level. One can interpret the overlapping trend of these two independent models as follows. First, the effects of July 4th gatherings became less significant than last week because the number of new cases per day in Honolulu slightly decreases in the previous few days.  However, the data interpretation above can be easily misleading. Near July 4th, the number of new cases per day in Honolulu was around 20, and now it is about 200, which is a ten-times increase in 7 weeks. A few days of relaxed restrictions by a fraction of individuals made a huge difference.  If people in Hawai'i were better guided and self-controlled, the total number of confirmed cases in Honolulu now could have been below 2,000 with a low, increasing rate of around 20-30 new cases per day. The latest restriction by the Hawai'i state government is essential. On the other hand, each individual should keep the restriction guidelines as minimum mandatory rules to follow. The 28 days of the restriction include the Labor Day. If we were not careful enough, the second upsurging is visible, which will mimic what happened after July 4th.