Given the state order was made 2 weeks ago closing public parks and loitering on beaches, we will start to see its effects on the CCC of Honolulu county as it should decrease.
On 8/15, we forecasted that Honolulu CCC would reach close to 7,000 by today, and we now have 6, 031. A primary reason for the difference is that our forecasting was done when the Honolulu CCC was increasing the most rapid rate ever. During the last two weeks, three independent models did not show the same trend. Instead, the HICOVID model and the semi-log linear model alternatively be on top of each other.
Now, the Honolulu CCC seems to increase linearly, having almost the same number of new cases per day, which is between 200 and 250.
Three models show that the Honolulu CCC may reach around 8,000, which seems to be a reasonable estimation. The recent restriction can reduce the pandemic spread, but opening schools may impact it oppositely.
What we should understand is not the fact that the Honolulu daily cases or its rate are decreasing, but the Honolulu CCC was 659 on 7/1; today (8/23), it is 6031. Approximately we have ten times more cases than two months ago.