Today (8/25) is the second day of the fall 2020 semester. Fortunately, any violent increase in the Honolulu CCC did not happen, but instead, the CCC time-series become abnormally linear. In the last seven days, the daily new cases reported are on the average 215 with a standard deviation of 34.
On 8/15, when the Honolulu CCC widely increased, we forecast that the number will reach 7,000 by 8/23 and 10,000 by 8/31. Today, the state CCC reached 6,984, and the Honolulu portion is more than 91% percent of the state CCC.
From 5/14 to 5/27, Honolulu had zero new cases, maintaining the CCC equal to 414. Now, we have 15 times more total confirmed cases. The 7-day moving average method is often used to smooth the fluctuating data series. No mathematical function can perfectly fit the past data and accurately predict the future. In my opinion, the pandemic trend of COVID-19 is away from both the capability of analytic models and data-driven predictions.
Will Honolulu CCC mimic the same peak trend of 4/27 and start global slowdown, or make another jump after a few weeks of a less active period?