It is much more dangerous than what we expected yesterday.

[Aug. 14, 2020 1:30 pm] The worst scenario may come.  Remember we live in an Island, the isolated, confined region.

1. Today's Honolulu CCC data give us the upt-to-now worst secnario because the temporal variation of the Honolulu CCC profile is extreme.  
2. We can only provide the CCC ranges on 8/23 and 8/31, as shown above, because specific number forecasting for now is less meaningful.
3. A median of the conservative and aggressive forecasting is about ~6,000 total cases in Honolulu by 8/23. 

Technicals

1. We revised our 5-day regression method, which gives a more aggressive prediction.
2. We start investigating the time-series data using more advanced techniques for better forecasting.
3. We are facing evolving patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which we never experienced. ​