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Previous updates and analysis

8/14/2020 0 Comments

It is much more dangerous than what we expected yesterday.

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[Aug. 14, 2020 1:30 pm] The worst scenario may come.  Remember we live in an Island, the isolated, confined region.
  1. Today's Honolulu CCC data give us the upt-to-now worst secnario because the temporal variation of the Honolulu CCC profile is extreme.  
  2. We can only provide the CCC ranges on 8/23 and 8/31, as shown above, because specific number forecasting for now is less meaningful.
  3. A median of the conservative and aggressive forecasting is about ~6,000 total cases in Honolulu by 8/23. 
Technicals
  1. We revised our 5-day regression method, which gives a more aggressive prediction.
  2. We start investigating the time-series data using more advanced techniques for better forecasting.
  3. We are facing evolving patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which we never experienced. ​
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    ​We are Civil Engineering students at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who are dedicated to informing the public on this pandemic and how science could be used to predicts future cases.

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