More than one-third of the cumulative confirmed cases occurred in the last six months (from March 7 to Aug. 7) seems to appear in the next 2--3 weeks.

[August 9, 2020 7:10 pm] Unprecedented risk 

1. In our opinion, the recent Act with Care order placed on Oahu in its early stages will influence the Honolulu CCC in at least two or three weeks (i.e., late August). During this time, Honolulu CCC may highly fluctuating and, therefore, much harder to predict accurately. (Seth)
2. From March 7 to July 31, Honolulu had almost 2,000 cases (1,755 to be exact). As of August 9, the accelerating trend of CCC growth rate tells us that Honolulu CCC will possibly reach at least 4,319, until August 23. (Mia)
3. We observe that the growth *rate* increases continuously (which needs more study), and therefore the recent CCC growth is non-linearly, i.e., drastically increasing. (Brenton)
4. The intuitive extrapolation (the short-dashed black line) and our numerical prediction (the solid red line) still show a noticeable difference of about 1,000. Nevertheless, both support that Honolulu CCC will most likely exceed 4,000 any time soon. (Brent)
5. If the conservatively predicted CCC continues to increase at the current rate, we forecast that the projected minimum CCC will reach 5,000 within a week, and roughly about 6,000 cases by 8/23. (Mia, Seth, and Brenton)