8/21/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC AnalysisHonolulu CCC now entered a different stage than last week, when we had an upsurging increase, which is, in our opinion, possibly ascribed to extra social gatherings near July 4th, 2020. If this hypothesis is correct, it takes three weeks to start CCC upsurging after increased social gatherings. The upsurging continued for more than three weeks (after 7/24) to start slowing down (on 8/20). Today (8/20/2020) and yesterday, the semilog linear forecasting moved down to our hicovidmodel prediction level. One can interpret the overlapping trend of these two independent models as follows. First, the effects of July 4th gatherings became less significant than last week because the number of new cases per day in Honolulu slightly decreases in the previous few days. However, the data interpretation above can be easily misleading. Near July 4th, the number of new cases per day in Honolulu was around 20, and now it is about 200, which is a tentimes increase in 7 weeks. A few days of relaxed restrictions by a fraction of individuals made a huge difference. If people in Hawai'i were better guided and selfcontrolled, the total number of confirmed cases in Honolulu now could have been below 2,000 with a low, increasing rate of around 2030 new cases per day. The latest restriction by the Hawai'i state government is essential. On the other hand, each individual should keep the restriction guidelines as minimum mandatory rules to follow. The 28 days of the restriction include the Labor Day. If we were not careful enough, the second upsurging is visible, which will mimic what happened after July 4th.
0 Comments
8/20/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC AnalysisHonolulu CCC now entered a different stage than last week, when we had an upsurging increase, which is, in our opinion, possibly ascribed to extra social gatherings near July 4th, 2020. If this hypothesis is correct, it takes three weeks to start CCC upsurging after increased social gatherings. The upsurging continued for more than three weeks (after 7/24) to start slowing down (on 8/20). Today (8/20/2020) and yesterday, the semilog linear forecasting moved down to our hicovidmodel prediction level. One can interpret the overlapping trend of these two independent models as follows. First, the effects of July 4th gatherings became less significant than last week because the number of new cases per day in Honolulu slightly decreases in the previous few days. However, the data interpretation above can be easily misleading. Near July 4th, the number of new cases per day in Honolulu was around 20, and now it is about 200, which is a tentimes increase in 7 weeks. A few days of relaxed restrictions by a fraction of individuals made a huge difference. If people in Hawai'i were better guided and selfcontrolled, the total number of confirmed cases in Honolulu now could have been below 2,000 with a low, increasing rate of around 2030 new cases per day. The latest restriction by the Hawai'i state government is essential. On the other hand, each individual should keep the restriction guidelines as minimum mandatory rules to follow. The 28 days of the restriction include the Labor Day. If we were not careful enough, the second upsurging is visible, which will mimic what happened after July 4th.
8/19/2020 0 Comments Honolulu CCC AnalysisThis weekly graph will be here to show the overall weekly increase in Honolulu and Maui CCC over time. Maui seems to enterred a serious situation. Below are the daily updates of Honolulu CCC, which do not show noticeable differences to yesterday's trends. A more indepth analysis will come soon.
The Honolulu CCC continuously grow as the graph shows. The international trend wouldn't change much.
8/16/2020 0 Comments The daily interest rate of the Honolulu CCC is approximately 5.96%. Make sense?Figure analysis (revised on 8/17, 2:10 am)
Why do we analyze the Honolulu CCC, not the state CCC? Many people asked us: "Why don't you do the state data as well?" Here are the answers.
How to understand a logscale graph
Now is the time that nonexpert needs to understand that our prediction depends on the latest 12 weeks of unstable trends. A longer forecast will include higher errors. The current Honolulu case is almost the world's worst in terms of its increasing trends. 8/15/2020 0 Comments The worst scenario is coming true.
[Aug. 14, 2020 1:30 pm] The worst scenario may come. Remember we live in an Island, the isolated, confined region.
8/13/2020 0 Comments Back to hopping![August 13, 2020 12:30 pm] Today's data are not good. Honolulu has 342 new cases. Detailed analysis will be available soon. Honolulu CCC will easily exceed 4,500 on 8/23 unless tomorrow (8/14)'s new cases in Honolulu is significantly less than that of today (342). A reasonalbe analysis is that Honolulu CCC will be on 8/23 between mininum 4,442 (by conservative prediction) and 5,700 (by the 5day linear regression). Again, Honolulu is at a very unstable stage, as the data fluctuates. Today's death number increases also support our interpretation of the Honolulu CCC data. Students' analysis: 1. From August 7th to August 8th, HI DOH reported a significant spike in CCC (about 296 cases) following a period of increasing daily new cases for Honolulu. After this substantial increase, we saw a decrease in daily new cases for three days until the next jump. We observed a similarly significant rise in confirmed cases following a period of increasing daily new cases today (8/13) of about 350 CCC. 2. We predict that by 8/23, the CCC for Honolulu will be about 4,442. By 8/31, the CCC will be around 4,552, meaning that we predict a decrease in daily new cases will occur after 8/23. 3. Due to the sharp increase of about 350 newly reported CCC for Honolulu, the slope of the CCC wave has increased significantly, becoming steeper. The predicted maximum number of CCC for the Honolulu county at the end of the third wave has increased sharply with the slope. We forecast today(8/13) that Honolulu CCC may reach 4,442 by 8/23 (and further 4,552 by 8/31 (not shown in the above graph)).
8/12/2020 0 Comments Does the third wave starts slowing down? Students, please, keep minimizing any social interactions.[August 12, 2020 10:00 am] Pandemic Analysis upto 8/11/2020

AuthorWe are Civil Engineering students at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who are dedicated to informing the public on this pandemic and how science could be used to predicts future cases. ArchivesCategories 
Proudly powered by Weebly