8/16/2020 0 Comments ## The daily interest rate of the Honolulu CCC is approximately 5.96%. Make sense?Figure analysis (revised on 8/17, 2:10 am)- The horizontal axis is the number of days after the first case occurred in different countries. The vertical axis is the cumulative confirmed cases (CCC) of the nations, plotted in log scale. In every step, the number increases ten times.
- As of 8/15/2020, Honolulu's CC is shown as 4,390 in comparison to those of U.S., Italy, Japan, Libya, and Lebanon. The dates in orange boxes in Hawai'i standard time match the days after the horizontal axis's first occurrence. Ironically, Dec. 31, 2020, will be the 300th day after the first case in Honolulu (as well as the state of Hawai'i ).
- In log scale plots, a trend of increasing numbers is much more important than the numbers on specific days. (See below for details of "How to understand a log-scale graph".)
- As you can see, the Honolulu CCC is currently rapidly increasing with time at the world's fastest rate. It will reach 10,000 shortly (within a few weeks). The latest linear trend indicates that the Honolulu CCC increases approximately 1.5 times every week. In other words, roughly a 5.96% increment every day.
- As of 8/16/2020, Honolulu CCC is 4591. It may reach
- by tomorrow (8/17)
4951×(1+0.0596)=5246(295more)4951×(1+0.0596)=5246(295more) - by the day after tomorrow (8/18),
4951×(1+0.0596)2=5246×(1+0.0596)=5559(323more)4951×(1+0.0596)2=5246×(1+0.0596)=5559(323more) - after a week (by 8/23)
4951×(1+0.0596)7=7,4244951×(1+0.0596)7=7,424 - and by 8/31
4951×(1+0.0596)15=11,7984951×(1+0.0596)15=11,798 - until the Election Day (Nov. 3, 2020), i.e., 79 days later,
4951×(1+0.0596)79=479.6K4951×(1+0.0596)79=479.6K which is about half of Oahu populations.
- If you know how to calculate
**a compound interest**, you can even improve the calculation above. - Again, in this rough statistcal forecasting, a 10 - 15% error is readily tolerable. Forecasting a trend is much more important than foretelling numers, especially for the current situation of Honolulu.
Why do we analyze the Honolulu CCC, not the state CCC?Many people asked us: "Why don't you do the state data as well?" Here are the answers. - Let's say that you are a father and husband, and you live with your spouse and two kids. I am interested in how old your family members are for my research. If you tell me, "The sum of my four family members' ages is 100, " I can calculate the age average of 25, but that's it.
- Suppose you tell me that the ages are 45, 40, 9, and 6. Then, I know the full information about the four members' ages and even calculate their standard distribution of 20.25. Nevertheless, I do not know your age exactly. Maybe 40?
- Similarly, the Honolulu CCC, higher than any other counties, has unique and wildly fluctuating growth trends. Maui and Hawaii have much lower CCC magnitudes. Knowing that each county is equally important, the characteristic Honolulu pattern gives us much more precise insight to analyze other counties as well.
How to understand a log-scale graph- In measuring earthquakes, we often say earthquake degrees: let's say 2 or 4. These numbers indicate the number of zeros after 1, i.e., 100=102100=102 and 10,000=10410,000=104 respectively. Therefore, an earthquake of degree 4 is not twice stronger than that of degree 2, but 100=102100=102 times. If scientists use the real ratio between two separate earthquakes, it is not straightforward to compare them because one is too small. The number of zeros after one is called an exponent or a power. Therefore, 100=102100=102 called "10 to the power of 2". If you compare the two earthquakes of degrees 4 and 4.5, the power difference is 4.5−4.0=0.54.5−4.0=0.5. Then, the earthquake of degree 4.5 is 100.5=10‾‾‾√=3.162100.5=10=3.162 times stronger.
- In measuring hydrogen concentration in water, we use pH, defined as -log(Hydrogen concentration). In this case, pH=7 means H+ concentration is 10−710−7, and pH=8 indicates H+ concentration is 10−810−8. Due to the negative sign, the water of pH 7 has ten times higher hydrogen concentration than the water of pH 8. The unit of concentration is mol/liter [M].
Now is the time that non-expert needs to understand that our prediction depends on the latest 1-2 weeks of unstable trends. A longer forecast will include higher errors. The current Honolulu case is almost the world's worst in terms of its increasing trends.
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## AuthorWe are Civil Engineering students at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who are dedicated to informing the public on this pandemic and how science could be used to predicts future cases. ## Archives## Categories |

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