[August 6, 2020, 2:21 am] Honolulu is already in the third wave. Until two days ago, we were only half-sure that the third wave started in Honolulu. As of August 5 night, the pandemic data up to August 4 is available. Our analysis is as follows:
If the current trend continues for a couple of weeks, the CCC of Honolulu will reach at least 3,000 when UH starts instruction on August 24, 2020.
One crucial fact is that at this very unstable state, decreases in daily confirmed cases for a few days do not mean the situation is mitigated, but it can be regarded as a precursor of a more significant jump.
Honolulu county is currently at the most severe pandemic stage ever. Our prediction (shown above as a red line) is conservative, meaning that it can be regarded as the prediction of minimum CCC shortly.